基于遗传优化的西太平洋副高异常活动年份的动力预报模型反演  

Retrieving dynamic forecast model of the western pacific subtropical high in abnormal years based on GA

作　　者：洪梅[1] 张韧[1] 刘科峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象海洋学院军事海洋环境军队重点实验室,南京211101

出　　处：《物理学报》2013年第7期76-84,共9页Acta Physica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号:41005025/D0505;41075045);江苏省自然科学基金(批准号:BK2011123);解放军理工大学预研基金资助的课题~~

摘　　要：基于2000—2010年NECR/NECP的500hPa位势场资料,用EOF时空分解方法和动力模型重构思想,通过遗传算法的全局优化搜索和并行计算途径,开展了500hPa位势场动力预报模型反演,建立了刻画副高活动的非线性动力预报模型,实现了副高活动的中长期预报.模型预报试验表明,该模型对副高的中长期活动,尤其是异常活动能够较好地描述和预报,进而为副高等复杂天气系统的预报探索了新的方法思路.On the basis of the potential field data on 500 hPa from 2000-2010 from NCEP/NCAR, introducing the ideas of EOF（empirical orthogonal function） time-space separation and the dynamic system reconstruction of time series, with the advantages of the global optimization and parallel calculation by genetic assistance, dynamic model inversion is carried out, thus a nonlinear forecast model of the subtropical high activity and aberrance is established. And a mid/long-range forecast of subtropical high activity was carried out. The results of dynamic model forecast experiment showed that the mid/long-range forecast of subtropical high pressure by our model can be very actual. Especially, the aberrance of the subtropical high pressure can be drawn and forecast. A new method of idea is presented for diagnosing and forecasting such complicated weathers as subtropical high activity.

关 键 词：副热带高压 500 hPa位势场 动力模型反演 遗传算法 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]