城市化水平、贸易自由化与经济增长关系的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Among the Level of Urbanization,Trade liberalization and Economic Growth

作　　者：郭炳南[1] 程贵孙 

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学公共管理学院,212003 [2]华东师范大学商学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2013年第4期18-26,共9页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学研究基金(项目编号:12CJY105);教育部人文社会科学研究基金(项目编号:10YJC790069);教育部人文社会科学研究基金(项目编号:12YJC630024)

摘　　要：本文基于理论分析基础上提出我国城市化水平、贸易自由化对经济增长的驱动机制,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验以及脉冲响应函数等计量方法,利用我国1978-2011年期间时间序列数据,实证研究了三者的长期均衡关系。研究结果表明:城市化水平与贸易自由化对经济增长的影响作用差异较大,城市化水平是经济增长的格兰杰原因,但经济增长促进城市化发展的效果不明显,贸易自由化与经济增长之间相互促进。同时,研究还发现城市化对经济增长的冲击存在短期滞后作用,而经济增长对贸易自由化冲击的响应则一直保持正能量的加速运动,最后得出结论,并提出相应的政策建议。Based on the theoretical analysis,this paper proposes the mechanism of trade liberalization and the level of urbanization on the economic growth in China,and does an empirical study on the long-run equilibrium relationship among them by using the 1978-2011 time series data and Cointegration test,Granger causality test and impulse response function measurement methods.The study results show that： the level of urbanization and trade liberalization showquite different impact on the economic growth.The level of urbanization is the Granger cause of economic growth,but economic growth does not promote urbanization,while trade liberalization and economic growth promote each other.At the same time,the study also shows that the impact of urbanization on economic growth exists short-term hysteresis,while the economic growth response to the impact of trade liberalization has remained to be positive energy of the accelerated motion.In the end,the paper gives relevant conclusions and puts forward policy recommendations.

关 键 词：城市化 贸易自由化 经济增长 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]