基于国内增值的中国出口复杂度测度分析──兼论“Rodrik悖论”  

Examining China’s Export Sophistication and Its Rodrik Paradox Based on Domestic Value-Added of Exports

作　　者：丁小义[1] 胡双丹[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经贸管理学院,310023 [2]浙江工业大学之江学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2013年第4期40-50,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究项目(12YJC790031)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文以UN Comtrade数据库中SITC(Rev.3)五分位商品的贸易数据为依据,以22个发达国家(地区)、11个发展中国家为比较对象,通过构建两个基于出口国内增值的新型指标,即出口净相似度指数和出口净技术复杂度指数,实证考察了近十年中国出口复杂度的变化及当前所处的相对地位。研究发现:扣除了出口中所含的进口中间投入品的附加值后,中国的出口复杂度出现了一定程度的下降,表明原测度方法下中国的出口复杂度被高估;虽然近十年中国的净相似度指数和净技术复杂度指数均有所增长,但横向比较表明中国的出口复杂度并没有像Rodrik(2006)等所指出的那样乐观,中国仍明显属于发展中国家行列,而且与美国等主要发达国家的技术差距无明显收敛趋势,中国出口的技术升级和赶超仍充满挑战。By using SITC（Rev.3） 5-digit trade data from UN Comtrade Database,this paper analyzes empirically the movement during last ten years and the current relative level of China’s Export Sophistication compared with 22 developed countries and 11 developing countries by designing two new indices,namely Net Export Similarity Index and Net Technological Sophistication Index,based on domestic value-added of exports.This paper finds： after taking away the importing value-added of intermediate goods from exports,the China’s export sophistication indices fell to a certain extent;although during the last ten years China’s export sophistication increased slowly,different from the optimistic findings of Rodrik（2006）,China’s export sophistication still lags behind developed countries just like many other developing countries;furthermore,the technical gap is not becoming certainly convergent between China and the main developed countries such as USA,so the upgrading and catching-up of the technological contents of China’s exports is full of challenges and uncertainties.

关 键 词：出口复杂度 出口的国内增值 净相似度指数 净技术复杂度指数 

分 类 号：F752.654.4[经济管理—国际贸易]