东盟贸易便利化对中国农产品出口影响及国际比较——基于面板数据模型的实证分析  

A Comparative Study on the Impacts of ASEAN Trade Facilitation on China’s Agricultural Product Exports:An Empirical Analysis Base on Penal Data Model

作　　者：孙林[1] 倪卡卡[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经贸管理学院,310023

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2013年第4期139-147,共9页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金项目(Y7100111);浙江省哲学社会科学规划重点项目(项目编号:11JCYJ02Z);教育部人文社科青年项目(项目编号:10YJC790225);浙江省自然基金项目(项目编号:Y6110266)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：在后金融危机时期贸易保护主义兴起的大背景下,推进贸易便利化已成为世界各国共同关注的重要话题。本文运用泊松伪极大似然估计法(PPML)方法,实证分析了东盟贸易便利化措施对中国和国际农产品出口的影响,并比较了影响程度上的差异。研究表明:提高东盟海关效率、提升港口质量等级、减少贸易壁垒流行程度以及增加英特网的普及率都对国际农产品出口东盟有显著的促进作用。但是,只有英特网的普及率和贸易壁垒盛行度对中国与东盟农产品贸易有显著的影响,其他变量不显著。这说明东盟的贸易便利化对农产品出口的影响存在明显的地域差异。另外,模拟分析发现,若东盟英特网普及率提升至区域平均水平,中国对东盟农产品出口将增加327亿美元。未来一段时间,在深化中国与东盟区域合作上,需要进一步加强贸易基础设施建设,并进一步削减或清除贸易壁垒,实现双方贸易便利化措施对接,以促进农产品贸易发展。On the background of rising trade protectionism in post-financial crisis era,it has been a world important common topic to promote trade facilitation.This paper uses Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood（PPML） Method to empirically analyze the impacts of the trade facilities in ASEAN on the agricultural product exports of both China and the world,and compares the degrees of their influences.The results show that： improving the customs clearance efficiency of ASEAN,leveling up the customs quality,reducing the prevalence of trade barriers and popularizing the Internet using can remarkably increase the world agriculture exporting to ASEAN.However,only the popularization of the Internet using and reducing the prevalence of trade barriers have an obvious effect on trade between China and ASEAN.Other variables are not obvious.This indicates that the impacts of trade facilitation in ASEAN on the agricultural products exporting differ in areas.Besides,the simulation analysis shows： if the Internet using in ASEAN increased to the area average level,Chinas exports of agricultural products will increase 32.7 billion dollars.In deepening the cooperation between China and ASEAN in the future,both sides should further strengthen the trade infrastructure construction and reduce or eliminate trade barriers to realize their docking,thereby improve the development of agriculture products trade.

关 键 词：贸易便利化 引力模型 PPML 模拟分析 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]