卫星参数趋势预测EMA熵组合算法  

EMA Entropy Combination Model for Trend Forecast of Satellite Telemetry Parameters

作　　者：郭小红[1,2] 徐小辉[2] 王超[2] 郭荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]宇航动力学国家重点试验室,西安710043 [2]西安卫星测控中心,西安710043

出　　处：《飞行器测控学报》2013年第2期118-122,共5页Journal of Spacecraft TT&C Technology

摘　　要：卫星遥测参数的趋势变化状态对卫星故障预测的判断起到重要的指导作用,立足于遥测参数特性,提出等高线预测方法,从特征数据出现的时刻对参数进行趋势预测。为了提高预测精度,引入EMA(增加期望模式)误差分析模式,结合之前提出的新息灰预测模型,根据熵组合基本原理建立基于EMA熵组合预测模型。通过工程数据仿真计算,并利用预测有效度对各种算法进行评估,结果验证了基于EMA的熵组合预测模型的正确性和可靠性。The trend of changes of satellite telemetry parameters is a key guide to judgment in forecast of satellite faults. This paper proposes a contour forecast method based on the characteristics of satellite telemetry parameters. The trend of telemetry parameters is forecasted according to the time of stamp data. EMA （Expected-Mode Aug mentation） mode error analysis mode is used in combination with a new information grey predicted model, which is presented by the author in a previous paper, to improve the accuracy of forecast. A new error entropy combination model using entropy combination theory is established. Validity and reliability of the proposed method is verified with emulated engineering data by evaluation of the forecast efficiency of different methods.

关 键 词：卫星参数 趋势预测 等高线 增加期望模式(EMA) 熵组合 

分 类 号：V557.3[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]