山东省中长期电力市场分析预测  

Analysis and Forecast on Mid-long Term Electricity Market of Shandong Province

作　　者：牟宏[1] 王春义[1] 薛万磊 汪湲[1] 安鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东电力集团公司,山东济南250001 [2]山东电力经济技术研究院,山东济南250001

出　　处：《山东电力技术》2013年第2期13-19,共7页Shandong Electric Power

摘　　要：分析了山东经济发展情况,电力需求和负荷特性,结合国内外宏观经济形势给出了山东经济发展预测结果;采用用电单耗法、分产业预测法、分地区预测法、回归模型预测、趋势外推预测方法预测了山东省全社会用电量,并对各种预测结果进行了分析校核;采用最大负荷利用小时数法、分地区预测法和趋势外推预测法对山东省全社会最大负荷进行预测,提出了2015年、2020年全社会用电量和全社会最高负荷预测推荐方案。预测结果为山东电网规划提供了可靠的基础数据支撑,为项目计划安排提供了重要依据,可进一步提高山东坚强智能电网的发展质量和效益。This paper analyzed the economic development, power demand and load characteristics of Shandong province. The economic development was forecasted with the consideration of domestic and foreign macroeconomic situation. The total electricity consumption of Shandong province was predicted by electricity intensity, sub-industry forecast, sub-region prediction, regression model and trend extrapolation method. Then, the forecast results were checked and the maximum load of the whole society of Shandong province was predicted by maximum load utilization hours, sub-region prediction and trend extrapolation method. The recommend total electricity consumption and maximum load of the whole society in 2015 and 2020 was provided. The predicted results can provide a reliable basis for Shandong power grid planning and project plan. Moreover, improve the quality and efficiency of Shandong smart grid development.

关 键 词：电力市场 中长期 预测 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]