劳动力输出大省农村经济增长的路径选择——基于安徽农村调查的影响因素Logistic模型分析  

Rural Economic Growth Path in Labor-exporting Province——Logistic Model Analysis Based on the Influence Factors Investigation of Anhui Rural

作　　者：胡春阳[1] 余吉祥[1] 程业炳[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽科技学院财经学院,安徽凤阳233100 [2]安徽科技学院管理学院,安徽凤阳233100

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第2期118-121,共4页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(11CJL031);安徽省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2011sk321);安徽省社科规划项目(AHSK09-10D56);安徽科技学院重点建设学科项目(AKXK20102-3)

摘　　要：结合当前农村经济的二元性及劳动力要素的流动性,构建包含兼业度、土地集中度、农业机械化、农村文化等十个自变量的经济增长影响模型。兼业度对农村经济增长起着决定性作用,粮食、农资、良种、农机具四项农业补贴的影响较显著,农业机械化及土地经营规模等影响农业生产要素效率的因素,以及人口特征中性别以的外文化程度、年龄和职业技能等因素的影响不显著。因此,要集约化使用三农资金和农村土地资源,依靠技术进步提升全要素生产率,营造良好文化和政策环境,促进农村劳动力的适度转移和科学回流。Large - scale transference of rural labors is inevitable in the process of balancing urban and ru- ral development which agrees whit the law of industrial evolution. This paper proposes an economic growth model which includes the independent variables such as part- time degree, land concentration ratio, agricul- tural mechanization and rural culture, by analyzing the duality of rural economy and the mobility of rural la- bors. The empirical analysis of logistic model shows that part -time degree has a decisive effect on rural eco- nomic growth, and agricultural subsidies include food, agricultural, seed and farm machinery also have signifi- cant effect, while such factors as agricultural mechanization, land management scale, education, age and vo- cational skills have little effect. Therefore it is necessary to produce a favorable cultural and policy environ- ment to make use of agriculture - rural areas - farmers founds and agricultural land intensively, to enhance the total factor productivity relying on scientific and technological advances, and to promote optimum rural labor transfer and reasonable circumfluence.

关 键 词：农村经济增长 路径 影响因素 劳动力转移 LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：F320.1[经济管理—产业经济]