我国居民消费的增长与波动——基于季节调整方法  

The Growth and Fluctuation of Household Consumption——A New Scheme for Seasonal Adjustment

作　　者：陈雄强[1] 张晓峒[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2012年第10期75-79,共5页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"经济序列季节调整的理论与应用研究"(10BTJ010);国家自然科学基金项目"稳健季节调整的信号提取理论与应用研究"(71101075);国家统计局项目"中国宏观经济序列季节调整与X-12-ARIMA中国版软件研发"

摘　　要：文章根据日销售额的节假日特征,提出我国居民消费序列季节调整的新方案,并运用季节调整结果分析我国居民消费的增长和波动。研究表明:在新方案中增加移动假日效应和工作日效应后,不仅能充分提取原始序列的季节成分和节假日效应成分,而且可以有效监测居民消费的增长和波动。原始序列的分解结果表明,我国居民消费的趋势循环成分持续稳步增长、季节波动模式基本保持稳定、不规则成分平稳随机变动。基于新季节调整方案得到的环比数据可以及时发现经济指标的转折点,因此更适宜于对居民消费进行实时监测。Based on the holiday features in daily data of retail sales,this paper propose a new scheme for seasonal adjust ment,and analysis the growth and fluctuation of household consumption.Taking into account the effect of moving holidays and working days,the new proposal not only can capture various seasonal and holiday effects entirely,but also can monitor the growth and fluctuation of household consumption.As a result of seasonal adjustment,household consumption is broken down into three components.Trend-circle component grows fairly steadily.Seasonal effect is reasonably stable in terms of an nual timing and direction.Irregular component is a random process with constant mean.On the basis of seasonal adjustment series,month-to-month percent change is obtained,which is appropriate for real-time monitoring.

关 键 词：居民消费 季节调整 移动假日 工作日效应 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]