三种方法对森林地表可燃物含水率的预测评价  

Evaluation of Three Prediction Methods on Forest Surface Fuel Moisture

作　　者：刘昕[1] 邸雪颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《森林工程》2013年第2期8-13,20,共7页Forest Engineering

基　　金："十二五"国家科技计划课题(2011BAD08B01)

摘　　要：森林地表可燃物的含水率是判定林火是否能够发生以及火势蔓延速度的最基本指标,如何准确地预测含水率对预测林火的发生以及火灾的扑救防范工作有着重大意义。本文着重从3个主要研究方法阐述可燃物含水率预测的研究进展:遥感估测法;平衡含水率法;气象要素回归法。分析表明:遥感估测法较适用于大尺度、高植被覆盖率的区域,预测精度尚达不到平衡含水率法以及气象回归法估算的水准;平衡含水率的预测模型理论可行,实际应用中能达到很好效果,但对平衡含水率以及时滞的研究仍处于发展阶段;气象要素回归法针对特定区域可燃物含水率预测准确,但不能应用到大尺度上;结合平衡含水率法和气象要素回归法的半物理半经验模型能够较好的预测可燃物含水率。The fuel moisture content is an important factor to determine whether the forest fire will happen, so predicting the fuel moisture content accurately has great significance for forest fire forecasting and fire fighting. This paper emphatically introduces the research progress of fuel moisture content prediction in three main research methods： remote sensing method, method of equilibrium moisture content, and method of meteorological element regression. The analysis shows that remote sensing method is suitable for large scale and high vegetation coverage area, but the accuracy is lower than the other two methods. The theory of equilibrium moisture con- tent prediction model is feasible and its practical application can achieve very good effect, but the research on equilibrium moisture content and time lag is still in the primary stage of development. The method of meteorological element regression can predict the fuel moisture content of the specific area accurately, but is not suitable for large scale areas. The semi-physical and semi-empirical model which combines the method of f equilibrium moisture content and meteorological element regression can predict the moisture content very well.

关 键 词：可燃物含水率 遥感估测法 平衡含水率法 气象要素回归法 

分 类 号：S757.3[农业科学—森林经理学]