发达经济体政府债务的迷思——基于新政治经济学的视角  

The Myth of Government Debt in Developed Countries:A Perspective from New Political Economy

作　　者：刘洪钟[1] 杨攻研[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2013年第4期104-124,159-160,共21页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社科基金"金融危机后东亚经济再平衡及我国战略研究"(10BGJ022)的资助

摘　　要：2008年全球金融危机之后发达经济体在债务的泥潭中越陷越深,对于如何寻求预算平衡和减低政府债务至今仍无清晰的思路,发达国家政府的债务问题成为全球经济不能承受之重。回顾历史,发达经济体的政府债务问题自1880年以来已经反复出现,当前的政府债务周期起点可追溯至20世纪70年代。早期发达国家政府债务积累往往与战争相联系,然而,自70年代以来,在无战争与冲突的背景下发达国家债务水平却持续增长,成为历史上的独特现象。分析发现,新政治经济学领域中选民的"不完备知识"和政治进程中的"策略性互动"对此给出了有力的解释,政府债务内生性出现。长期以来,发达国家试图利用财政规则抑制政府债务的不断膨胀,但作者的实证检验发现规则并不成功:它不能消除债务的内生性问题。受到独立央行的启发,危机之后独立的财政委员会开始受到更多人的关注。理论上这一制度安排能够成为内生性政府债务的解,独立性和声誉、较为广泛的职权范围以及拥有官方的法定地位是设立财政委员会并获得成功的一般性原则。After the financial crisis,developed economies are bogged down in the mire of debt and still do not find the way to achieve a balanced budget and reduce government debt.Earlier accumulation of government debt in developed countries is often linked with the war.Since the 1970s,however,debt levels continued to grow without war and conflict,which has become a unique phenomenon.In new political economy research field, 'incomplete knowledge' of the voter and 'strategic interaction' in the political process made a strong explanation,and government debt becomes endogenous.Thus,developed countries are trying to use the fiscal rules to inhibit the expansion of government debt for a long time.But our empirical testing finds that the rules are not successful;it cannot eliminate the problem of the endogeneity of debt.The success of independent central bank has inspired the institutional arrangement of the independent fiscal councils in the aftermath of the crisis.Our analysis shows that the institutional arrangements could be a solution to the endogenous government debt theoretically.Historical experience suggests there are some principles for the independent fiscal councils to follow when dealing with high debt burdens,and offers both instructive lessons and cautionary tales for the policy makers in the cloud of government debt.

关 键 词：政府债务内生性 财政规则 独立财政委员会 发达经济体 

分 类 号：D80[政治法律—政治学] F811.5[政治法律—外交学]