管理层偏好、投资评级乐观性与私有信息获取  

The Managers' Preferences,the Optimization in the Evaluation of the Investment Level and the Obtainment of the Private Information

作　　者：赵良玉[1] 李增泉[2] 刘军霞[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学会计学院 [2]上海财经大学会计学院,会计与财务研究院 [3]香港城市大学会计系

出　　处：《管理世界》2013年第4期33-47,47+46+187-188,共15页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号:71172141;70802035;71202002)的资助;教育部人文社科研究基地重大课题<新兴资本市场中的财务分析师行为及其作用的研究>(项目批准号:12JJD790033)的阶段性研究成果;李增泉特别感谢教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划的资助

摘　　要：本文分析认为,我国财务分析师评级报告乐观性的一个重要动机是为了满足上市公司管理层的偏好,以获取私有信息。以盈余预测的准确性衡量私有信息的获取程度,本文针对上市公司公开增发、配股、大股东减持事件的实证检验结果,提供了支持该论断的经验证据。我们发现,控制公司、年度以及分析师自身因素后,在上市公司需要时发布乐观评级报告的分析师,其后的盈余预测更准确。进一步分析表明,以乐观报告换取私有信息的现象主要存在于私有信息价值更高的上市公司中,说明分析师在一定条件下会在乎发布有偏报告对其声誉的影响。在稳健性检验中,我们以分析师去上市公司调研衡量私有信息的获取,再次证实了上述论断。本文的发现不仅从理论上补充了分析师乐观性动因以及私有信息获取方式等方面的文献,还可在实务上帮助投资者更好地理解和使用分析师的研究报告。By our analysis,we think that one of the important motives of the optimization in the evaluation of China' s financial analysts is for the satisfaction to the preferences of the managers of listed companies so as to obtain Private information(PI).By the precision of the prediction for earnings to measure the degree of the obtainment of the PI, and based on the results of a case examination of listed-companies public increase of shares,the rights issue, and the events of big shareholders' decrease of shareholding,we have,in this paper,provided empirical evidence to support the above-mentioned hypothesis.We have discovered that,after the effects of the controlling over firms, of the year and of the analysts themselves,the earnings prediction after the analysts who issued optimistic opinions when the listed companies are in need,is more accurate.Our further analysis indicates that the phenomenon that the optimistic reports are used to get the PI exists mainly in the listed companies with still higher values of the PI, which shows that the analysts may care about the impact of the issue of biased reports on their reputation.In our reliable examination,we have let analysts go to listed companies to investigate and research and measure the obtainment of the PI,and once again confirmed the above-mentioned conclusion.Our discovery published in this article has not only supplemented the show of the motivation of analysts' optimization and the literature concerning the way of the obtainment of the PI,but also will help investors,in their business,better to understand and use the reports of analysts' researches.

关 键 词：投资评级预测准确度配股公开增发 大股东减持 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F224