CCS全流程示范技术组合专家偏好研究  

Expert Preference for Technology Combination Scenarios of CCS Full-chain Demonstration in China

作　　者：张贤[1] 张九天[1] 仲平[1] 贾莉[1] 秦媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京100038

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第4期34-40,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71203008)

摘　　要：CO2捕集和封存技术(Carbon Capture and Storage,CCS)作为我国应对气候变化三大措施之一,是重要的战略技术储备。目前我国CCS主要是以政府引导、联合开展示范性工程为主,而CCS全流程示范涉及内部各要素的选择和组合问题。为更好地统筹规划CCS全流程技术示范,亟需从现有技术成熟度、我国技术掌握水平、技术发展前景以及成本、风险、目标一致性、技术涵盖性、现实性等方面选取合适的CCS技术组合。本研究通过问卷调查和面对面访谈的方式对140位专家关于CCS全流程示范技术的偏好进行研究,采用联合分析法,分析专家对CCS技术的接受和偏好程度。结果表明,专家认为封存方式是CCS技术发展中最重要的因素,其次是捕集方式和运输方式。同时我们发现,来自不同部门的专家对CCS技术发展的看法不太一样。最后,通过分析筛选出近10种全流程CCS技术组合。Carbon dioxide capture and storage （CCS） technology is as one of the three feasible measures responding to climate change in China and has been considered as a strategic technology. The current CCS activities in China have been mostly carried out by Chinese government in the forms of demonstration and guidance. The development of CCS full-chain demonstration is a complex process that involves the selection and combination of different elements of capture, storage and transport technology. Appropriate technology combination will contribute to better strategic planning of CCS full-chain demonstration. The factors include the maturity of technology, Chinese expertise acceptance, development, congruence of cost, risk and goal, coverage and reality etc. The aim of the study is to investigate expert perception among 140 samples on the most feasible combination of elements by questionnaire and face to face interviews. The acceptance and preference has been analyzed through conjoint analysis. The results showed that the storage technology is the most important factor followed by capture and transport technology. We also found that the experts from different sectors took different views. Finally, we screened ten kinds of combination scenarios of CCS technology demonstration.

关 键 词：CCS技术 联合分析法 专家打分法 全流程示范 偏好研究 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]