基于MGM(1,N)模型的北京创意农业发展灰色预测  

Grey Forecasting Analysis on Creative Agricultural Development in Beijing Based on MGM(1,N) Model

作　　者：刘笑冰[1] 陈建成[1] 何忠伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]北京农学院经济管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第4期62-66,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：2011年北京市自然科学基金面上项目"北京创意农业发展模式与机制研究"(编号:9112006)

摘　　要：创意农业,作为农业的新型产业业态和都市型农业转型升级的重要标志,成功实现了创意产业与传统农业生产的有机结合,有力促进了首都都市型现代农业的转型升级。然而,北京市创意农业在发展过程中呈现出多形态、不平衡的发展现状,为促进北京市创意农业的平衡与快速发展,本文以创意产业发展为背景,综合考虑多种变量对创意农业发展的影响,运用自适应多变量MGM(1,n)灰色预测模型,分别对北京2011-2015年不同形式创意农业发展规模与发展方向进行预测。研究发现:在发展规模上,伴随着北京创意产业与农业生产等不断发展,未来五年内北京创意农业总产值将不断增长;在发展方向上,北京创意农业中的农业观光园、民俗旅游、设施农业产值都将不断增长,其中农业观光园产值最大,且其收入增长速度最快,而民俗旅游不仅产值低,而且增长最为缓慢。因此,应在保证农业观光园和设施农业的扶持力度的基础上,加大对民俗旅游的支持力度,加速民俗旅游的发展速度,以促使北京市创意农业全面、平衡发展。As a new type of industry and an important sign of upgrade of metropolitan agriculture, creative agriculture realizes the organic combination of the creative industries and traditional agricultural production, and promotes the transformation and upgrade of urban modern agriculture. In this paper, we take creative industry development as the background, and consider the multivariate influence on creative agriculture development comprehensive. We analyze the creative agriculture development scale and development direction by the method of adaptive multivariate grey forecasting model MGM （1, N ）. Results reveal： From the perspective of development scale, Beijing＇s creative agriculture output will continue to increase in the next five years, with the development of creative industry and agriculture production. From the perspective of development direction, the output value of agricultural sightseeing garden, folk tourism facilities, agricultural facilities will increase. The output value of agricultural sightseeing garden is the largest, and its growth rate is the fastest. However, the output value and the growth rate of folk tourism was the lowest. Besides strengthening support on agrieultaral sightseeing garden and agricultural facilities, we should also strengthen the support on the tourism agriculture to promote the comprehensive and balanced development of the creative agriculture in Beijing.

关 键 词：灰色预测 创意农业 农业观光园 民俗旅游 设施农业 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济]