新疆天山山区近51年来降水变化特征  

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Precipitation in Tianshan Mountain of Xinjiang during the Last 51 Years

作　　者：韩雪云[1,2] 杨青[2] 姚俊强[3] 

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,乌鲁木齐830054 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2013年第2期139-144,共6页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(200821176);全球变化国家重大科学研究计划项目课题(2010CB951001)

摘　　要：利用1959—2009年天山山区11个站点的降水量数据,通过累积距平、回归分析、EOF、Mann—Kendall(M—K)检验、最大熵谱分析等,分析了近51a来天山山区降水的时空分布特征。结果表明:山区降水量呈增加趋势(降水气候倾向率为1.134mm/a),且以20世纪90年代和21世纪初前10a尤为明显,增湿趋势在逐渐增大;山区年降水量的变化表现出一致性增加的趋势,降水气候倾向率具有很强的区域特点,其中天山中部和南部的变化趋势均大于西部;降水空间分布主要以山区一致型和东西反相位变化为主;在95%的置信概率下,山区降水分别在1992年、1978年和2006年发生突变,3个主分量场分别表现出2.1,2.8,2.6,5.6a的周期;山区年降水和冬季降水在不同海拔高度上没有明显的一致变化,夏季降水幅度随海拔高度的增加而增大。Based spatio temporal gression analysi on the precipitation data obtained from 11 stations in Tianshan Mountain during 1959--2009, distribution characteristics of precipitation were analyzed by using accumulative anomaly, re- s, EOF（empirical orthogonal function decomposition）, Mann-Kendall（M-K）inspection, ME- SA（maximum entropy method） methods. Results showed that： the precipitation in the mountain presented upward tendency （the climate trend rate was 1. 134 mm/a）. The increase of precipitation was most obvious in 1990s and the first decade of 21st century, relative humidity increased gradually. The change of annual pre- cipitation had consistency strengthened, precipitation of climate trend rate had very strong regional features, which was characterized as that central and southern of Tianshan mountain precipitation trend were greater than the west. Spatial distribution of precipitation was mainly controlled by mountainous consistent type and east-west anti-phase phenomenon. Precipitation mutations in mountainous area occurred in 1992, 1978 and 2006, the three principal parts showed as 2.1 years, 2.8 years, 2.6 years and 5.6 year in cycle, respectively, under the confidence probability of 95%. Annual Precipitation in the mountains and winter had no significant change, but precipitation increased with the rise of altitude in summer.

关 键 词：天山山区 降水 气候倾向率 降水突变 降水周期 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]