上海地区强对流天气短时预报系统  

Nowcasting System of Severe Convective Weather in Shanghai

作　　者：杜秉玉[1] 官莉[1] 姚祖庆[2] 袁招洪[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京气象学院电子信息与应用物理系,江苏南京210044 [2]上海中心气象台,上海200030

出　　处：《南京气象学院学报》2000年第2期242-250,共9页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology

摘　　要：以强对流天气的发生、发展规律为依据 ,从中尺度数值预报模式输出结果、Doppler天气雷达、静止气象卫星、MICAPS系统和自动雨量站网等获取大气运动的各种尺度动力条件、水汽条件、大气稳定度和触发机制、各种天气实况等动态变化资料 ,结合预报员经验 ,建立了“上海地区强对流天气短时预报系统”(以下简称“预报系统”)。预报系统产品包括强对流天气的形势分析、0～ 1 2 h展望预报、0～ 3h滚动预报及警报。预报系统还设计了有自动增长功能的强对流天气库。In accordance with its occurrence and development laws,a nowcasting system of the severe convective weather in Shanghai is developed based on the output from mesoscale model,Doppler radar,GMS,MICAPS and AWS precipitation and on the atmospheric dynamic,moisture and stability conditions and the trigger mechanism,together with the forecasters experiences.The products of the system include the situation analysis of the severe convective weather,0~12 h forecast and 0~3 h alert.

关 键 词：强对流 短时预报系统 概率预报 上海地区 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]