青藏高原上空环流变化与其东侧旱涝异常分析  

Analysis of Circulation Variations over the Tibetan Plateau and Drought-Flood Anomalies on Its Eastern Side

作　　者：李跃清[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都高原气象研究所,成都610071

出　　处：《大气科学》2000年第4期470-476,共7页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家"九五"科技攻关项目!96-90 8-0 5-0 5专题资助

摘　　要：应用奇异值分解 (SVD)技术研究了青藏高原上空 1 0 0hPa高度场与高原东侧地区夏季降水场的时空结构及相互关系。结果表明 :第一模态代表了两场间的主要耦合特征 ,具有高度的时空相关 ;前期 1 0～ 1 2月、 1～ 4月青藏高原上空 1 0 0hPa高度场与高原东侧地区 6～ 8月降水场具有显著的联系 ,前期高度场变化引起后期南亚高压状况异常 ,导致高原东侧地区旱涝灾害 ;高原东侧地区严重干旱 (洪涝 )年 ,其上空 1 0 0hPa高度场为负(正 )距平控制 ;高度场与降水场的这种非同步联系 ,时空相关显著 ,时间间隔长 ,物理意义明确 ,是高原东侧地区夏季旱涝异常的一种预测信号。Using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique, the relationship between 100 hPa height over the Tibetan Plateau and summer rainfall on its eastern side is studied. The result shows that the first mode derived from SVD indicates the key coupled characteristics of the height and the rainfall fields with closely time-space correlation. There is an obvious connection between the 100 hPa height over the Tibetan Plateau in previous October-December and January-April and the summer rainfall on its eastern side. The variation of previous height field, by influencing the regime of the South Asia High, results in the drought-flood anomalies in summer on the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau. In severe drought (flood) years, the 100 hPa height is of negative (positive) departures over the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau. The asynchronous relationship between the height and rainfall fields with significant correlation, long time intervals and obvious interpretation are a strong signal of the prediction of drought-flood anomalies in summer on the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau.

关 键 词：奇异值分解 青藏高原 大气环流 夏季旱涝 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]