贝叶斯统计方法在海浪方向谱研究中的应用  

Application of Bayesian statistical method on the study of directional spectrum of wind waves

作　　者：赵栋梁[1] 黄娟[2] 

机构地区：[1]青岛海洋大学物理海洋研究所,青岛266003 [2]国家海洋局北海分局,青岛266033

出　　处：《海洋学报》2000年第5期31-40,共10页

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金!(编号:Q98E04141);教育部博士点基金!(编号:98042302)

摘　　要：较详细介绍了贝叶斯统计方法在海浪方向谱估计中的应用，指出先验分布 的不同对估计结果没有影响，由于均匀分布与最大熵原则相对应，使其具有某种特殊 性．数值模拟表明贝叶斯方法对双峰方向分布估计的有效性，将其应用于黑海实测 资料，证明双峰方向分布的出现依赖于估计方法分辨力的大小，而用最大似然法得到 的双峰方向分布值得怀疑．最后给出出现双峰方向分布的一种可能物理解释。Application of Bayesian statistical method to the analysis of directional spectrum of wind waves is pre- sented in detail. It is pointed out that the difference of prior distributions has no influence on the estimated results, and there is some speciality for even distribution due to its corresponding to maximum entropy principle. The effectivity of Bayesian statistical method on the estimation of bimodal distribution is shown by numerical simulation. Through the analysis of Black Sea data, it is demonstrated that whether or not a bimodal distribution depends strongly on the estimating methods and the truthfulness of bimodal distribution obtained by the maximum likelihood method is doubted. A possible physical explaination for emergence of bimodal distribution is presented finally.

关 键 词：贝叶斯统计方法 海洋方向谱 先验分布 预报 

分 类 号：P731.33[天文地球—海洋科学]