基于主成分分析的陕西省水资源承载力预测  

Based on The Principal Component Analysis of the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources of Shanxi Province Prediction

作　　者：李磊 张敏 王炯 

机构地区：[1]江南大学商学院,江苏无锡214122 [2]江苏环境与发展研究中心,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第7期37-44,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家重点实验室开放基金"村镇给水管理模式研究"(HC201024);国家社会科学基金"实物期权条件下的公共资源交易问题研究"(08BJY060);江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"生态需要极其应用价值研究"(10JSJD25)

摘　　要：为合理分配和利用陕西省水资源,在对其水资源现状分析的基础上,基于主成分分析的基础上利用多元线性回归模型预测方法,对陕西省未来5年水资源的需求量进行了预测.结果表明:未来5年陕西省水资源年均处于增长状态,对陕西省供水能力提出了严峻考验.结合未来陕西省发展规划以自然生态环境,分析了水资源的供需矛盾,提出陕西省资源可持续利用的对策.For reasonable allocation and utilization of water resources of shaanxi province, the water resources based on the analysis of the present situation, based on the principal component analysis based on multivariate linear regression model and the forecast method of shaanxi province in the next five years the demand for water resources is forecasted. The results show that the next five years at an average annual rate of growth in shaanxi province water resources condition, to supply capacity of shaanxi province put forward severe test. Combined with the future development plan of shaanxi province to natural ecological environment, this paper analyzes the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, and puts forward the countermeasures of sustainable utilization of resources in shaanxi province.

关 键 词：主成分分析 水资源承载力 多元线性回归 预测 陕西省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]