中国丝绸业出口复杂度现状及演进机制分析  

An Analysis on the Status Quo and Evolvement Mechanism for Export Technical Sophistication of China’s Silk Industry

作　　者：顾国达[1] 方园[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,杭州310027

出　　处：《蚕业科学》2013年第2期365-371,共7页ACTA SERICOLOGICA SINICA

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(No.09BJY072);国家社科重大招标项目(No.10ZD&034);现代农业产业技术体系专项(No.CARS-22)

摘　　要：在描述1992～2011年中国丝绸业发展现状的基础上,通过测算出口复杂度指标,对中国丝绸业出口贸易技术结构的分布与演变进行横向和纵向的考察,并构建丝绸业出口复杂度动态演进的面板数据模型,对丝绸业出口复杂度变动的机制进行分析,得出如下结论。一是中国丝绸业出口复杂度经历了"N"型走势,进入21世纪后发展迅速,但出口复杂度的绝对额排名靠后,中国仅是丝绸出口大国,而非丝绸技术强国。二是丝绸业出口复杂度演进的主要动力是人均GDP,并且这种推动作用有加大的趋势。除了人均GDP外,丝绸的出口价格也是推动丝绸业出口复杂度提升的动力,且出口额也正成为推动出口复杂度提升的又一动力来源。Based on the status quo of China’s silk industry development during 1992 ～2011,this study estimated and calculated export technical sophistication of China’s silk industry and conducted investigations on distribution and evolvement of the technical structure in exportation trade of China’s silk industry both horizontally and vertically.Furthermore,a dynamic panel data model was built to analyze the evolvement mechanism of silk industry export technical sophistication.The following two conclusions were drawn.Firstly,the export technical sophistication of China’s silk industry experienced an 'N' shaped trend.Its development was rapid after entering the 21st century,but its absolute value of export technical sophistication ranked behind other countries,meaning that China was only a big country but not a strong country in silk export.Secondly,the major driving force for the evolvement of export technical sophistication of China’s silk industry was GDP per capita of which the driving effect is still having the tendency of being enhanced.Except for GDP per capita,export price of silk was also a driving force for increment of silk industry export technical sophistication,while export value is becoming another driving force for promotion of export technical sophistication.

关 键 词：丝绸业 出口复杂度 演进 推动因素 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F426.81[经济管理—产业经济] F224