1951-2010年华北平原农业气象灾害特征分析及粮食减产风险评估  

Characteristic Analysis of Agricultural Meteorological Disasters and Risk Assessment of the Crop Loss in North China Plain during 1951-2010

作　　者：胡亚南[1,2] 李阔[1] 许吟隆[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [2]山西省气候中心,太原030006

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2013年第2期197-203,共7页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：(中英瑞)中国适应气候变化项目(ACCC/20100515;ACCC/003);国家"十二五"科技支撑课题(2013BAC09B04);农业部948项目(2011-G9);山西省气象局2012领军人才课题"山西近百年气温序列构建";山西省科技攻关项目(20120313031-10)

摘　　要：利用华北平原1951-2010年长时间序列的粮食产量和农业受灾、成灾和绝收面积等统计数据,采用线性回归、滑动平均、M-K突变检测和模糊综合评判等方法,研究华北平原近60a来农业生产受干旱、洪涝、低温冷害和风雹等4种气象灾害影响的范围和强度的变化特征,以及不同时段4种灾害对华北平原各省份农业生产的影响和粮食减产风险。结果表明,除干旱外,洪涝、低温冷害和风雹3种农业气象灾害受灾比变化均存在突变年,分别为1970、1988和1974年;干旱受灾比变化趋势不明显,但其灾害强度呈极显著增加趋势(P<0.01);洪涝受灾比呈极显著下降趋势(P<0.01),其灾害强度显著下降(P<0.05);风雹受灾比和灾害强度均呈极显著增加趋势(P<0.01);模糊综合评判结果表明,总体上过去60a干旱是华北平原各省(市)主要农业气象灾害,低温冷害的影响程度最小,但不同时段内4种气象灾害对各省(市)影响程度存在一定差异;60a间华北平原粮食因灾损失量不断增加,因旱灾减产风险度最高;随时间推移旱灾减产高风险区不断向华北平原北部转移,风雹灾减产风险逐渐加大且北部风险增加速度大于南部,但洪涝和低温冷害减产的风险度一直较低。Based on the statistical data of disaster covered areas, disaster affected areas and disaster areas with no harvests of drought, flood, chilling damage, wind - hail, together with crop yield data, in North China Plain （NCP） from 1951 to 2010, the trends of strength and scope of these disasters covered was analyzed by using linear regression analysis, moving average, Mann -Kendall and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods, and the impacts of disasters on agriculture production and the crop loss risk were also analyzed. The results showed that the trends disaster covered area ratio existed abrupt change in 1970, 1988, and 1974 for flood, except for drought which tendency variation was not obvious, while a chilling damage and wind -hail respectively, very significant increasing trend for the strength （P 〈0. 01 ）. Flood disaster covered area ratio was a very significant decreasing trend （P 〈 0. 01 ）, and the disaster intensity decreased significantly （P 〈 0. 05 ）. Wind and hail showed a very significant increase in the trend of both disaster covered area ratio and intensity （ P 〈 0. 01 ）. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation showed that drought was the main agro - meteorological disasters in the provinces and cities, the minimum extent of cold damage, during the whole 60 years, where had some differences at sort of the four kinds of disasters on the degree of influence of different provinces in each period. Crop loss quantity was increasing in NCP during the last 60 years. The high risk of crop losscaused by drought was increase speed in North the small or low degree moving towards to the north of NCP; the loss risk was increasing of wind - hail, and the was faster than that in South; its risk caused by flood and chilling damage always remained in

关 键 词：华北平原 农业气象灾害 受灾比 灾害强度 模糊综合评判 粮食灾损风险 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护]