阿拉善高原近60年的气候变化  

Climate Change in Alxa Plateau over Recent 60 Years

作　　者：春喜[1,2] 丹丹 毕力格 刘美萍[2] 刘月[2] 胡和达来[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古师范大学蒙古高原环境与全球变化实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [2]内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [3]内蒙古气象科学研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特010022

出　　处：《水文》2013年第2期43-50,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40962004);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2009ZD04)

摘　　要：阿拉善高原处于季风边缘区,生态环境极其脆弱,对气候干湿变化的响应极为敏感。利用近60a的逐月气温和降水量资料,采用非参数Mann-Kendall和Mann-whitney阶段性转换检验方法,分析了其变化趋势。结果表明,研究区气温在1988年前后发生突变,在该跃点后的1988~2010年的平均气温比1955~1987年要高1℃以上,有明显的增温趋势。而年降水量则无明显的增加趋势,尽管部分站点在1991年前后有微弱的增加迹象,但是区域尺度的降水突变还不存在,气候仍以暖干化为主,暂不能得出气候向暖湿转变的结论。Alxa Plateau, located in the monsoon margin area, where ecological environment is extremely fragile, is very sensitive to the dry and wet changes of climate. In this paper, the mutation and its change trend was analyzed by using Mann-Kendall and Mann-Whitney test, according to the monthly temperature and precipitation from the meteorology stations in the study area over the recent 60 years. The results show that the temperature mutation of the study area occurred in 1988, and the annual mean temperature from 1988 to 2010 is I^C higher than that from 1955 to 1987, which show a significant warming trend while there is no obvious increasing trend of annual precipitation. Although there was a slight increase trend since 1991 at some stations, the precipitation mutation of regional scale did not occur. So the climate condition is still warm and dry, and it hasn＇t changed to warm and wet.

关 键 词：阿拉善高原 水资源 气候变化 生态环境 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]