原油价格对中国经济增长影响研究——基于西方七国的媒介作用分析  

The Effect of Crude Oil Price to the Economic Growth of China:A Comparative Analysis between China and G7

作　　者：吴丽丽[1,2] 肖兴志[2] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学,山西太原030006 [2]东北财经大学,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《未来与发展》2013年第4期50-55,共6页Future and Development

摘　　要：本文运用面板数据和VAR探讨西方七国在原油价格与中国经济增长关系中的作用,研究发现,原油价格指数对当期和未来年份中国GDP指数变动没有显著的直接影响,不过,通过美、英两国间接影响中国GDP指数变动,影响方向为正,持续时间较短。具体结论包括:(1)原油价格指数对当期中国、法国、英国、德国和意大利GDP指数没有显著的直接影响,但是对当期日本、美国、加拿大GDP指数有显著影响;(2)原油价格指数通过当期美国GDP指数间接影响当期中国GDP指数;(3)中国GDP指数对多数西方国家GDP指数有显著的长期影响,西方国家GDP指数对未来中国GDP指数影响都不显著;(4)中国GDP指数对原油价格指数有显著影响。本文建议;在能源战略、产业政策、能源技术等问题上,借鉴日本经验;在全球配置资源能力问题上,借鉴美、英两国以美元、英镑为基础的经济运行机制;提高人民币国际地位;将节能减排工作继续推向深入,以较少的能源消耗推动中国经济较快发展。Using panel data and VAR etc, the paper compares the effect of crude oil price to China with GT, and observes that 1. it＇s different that the crude oil price to Chinese economic growth and to other western countries. There are three country, Japan, America, and Canada, which Index of GDP is affected by the synchronous crude oil price, and China is not included. 2. Index of Chinese GDP is affected by synchronous Index of America GDP and English GDP. 3.Index of Chinese GDP is not affected by lag Index of G7 GDP, but Index of most western country GDP is affected by lag Index of Chinese GDP. 4.Crude oil price is affected by Index of Chinese GDP. The paper suggests that 1.Japanese energy policy should be studied by China. 2.America and English economic mechanism about how to find the cheaper price in the world wide should be studied by China when China import more raw material or other commodity in the future.3.China should improve RMB international status on the solid ground of comprehensive national strength. 4.China should reduce the expenditure of energy, and improve internal energy price is an effective method. Besides the paper discovers that China get the limited and short-term economic profit when she deals with western countries and this is a question for China to solve.

关 键 词：原油价格 经济增长 VAR GDP指数 面板数据 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]