基于突变级数的创业板成长性研究  

A Study of ChiNext Growth Based on the Catastrophe Progression Method

作　　者：陈守东[1,2] 陶治会[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学商学院,长春130012

出　　处：《证券市场导报》2013年第4期50-54,共5页Securities Market Herald

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790015);国家社科基金重大项目(10ZD&010);国家自然科学基金项目(11071026)

摘　　要：本文以2009-2011年度创业板上市公司财务指标为样本,应用突变级数方法计算出创业板公司的成长性指数,并以上市公司的总股本为标准确定权重计算整个创业板的加权成长性指数,进行成长性指数化研究。主要结果表明,2010年加权成长性指数涨幅为24%,如此高速的成长性却换来了2011年创业板价格指数高达35%的下跌,主要原因在于:第一,尽管有宏观政策的因素,但三高现象难辞其咎,其过度透支了创业板的成长性。因此,创业板发行方式应有所变革。第二,创业板上市公司大部分集中于产业链的中上游,属于制造密集型企业群体,这样单一化的行业结构也导致创业板整体成长性易于大幅波动。因此,今后应鼓励产业链下游企业的IPO来丰富创业板的行业结构,进而提高创业板整体成长的稳定性和代表性。The samples selected in this paper are financial indices of companies listed on ChiNext from 2009 to 2011. We apply catastrophe progression method to calculate the growth index of the ChiNext and determine the total share capital of listed companies as a standard weight to calculate the weighted growth index of ChiNext. The results show that the 2010 weighted growth index rose 24% in return for the 35% decline of 2011 ChiNext index. First, despite the macro-policy factors, due to three- high-phenomenon, the growth of ChinNext has been over used, therefore, some changes should be made for issuing method. Second, most of companies on ChiNext are concentrated in the middle and upper reaches of industrial chain, and they are manufacturing-intensive enterprises. Such a single structure of the industry made the volatility of ChiNext growth more drastic. Therefore, if enterprises＇ IPO of downstream industry chain be encouraged, the diversified ChiNext industry structure could be expected in the future, the stability and representativeness of the overall growth of the ChiNext could be improved.

关 键 词：创业板 成长性指数 突变级数 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]