房地产开发商群体的绿色建筑开发行为的演化分析  

Evolutionary Analysis on Green Buildings' Development Behavior of Real Estate Developer Groups

作　　者：王景慧[1] 秦旋[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,厦门361021

出　　处：《建筑科学》2013年第4期95-99,共5页Building Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于全寿命周期和利益相关者视角的绿色建筑风险对比研究"(51148010);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目"绿色建筑风险识别及分担研究"(JB-ZR1122)

摘　　要：发展绿色建筑已成为社会共识,但绿色建筑在我国的推广仍存在很多困难。在政府已给出一定激励政策的前提下,开发商是否有意愿开发绿色建筑将直接影响绿色建筑的推广。本文运用演化博弈理论,分析了不同房地产开发商群体对绿色建筑的开发意愿,建立了开发绿色建筑行为的模仿者动态模型,并进行了模拟仿真。模拟分析结果表明:开发绿色建筑产生的超额收益、开发商的贴现因子、未开发绿色建筑错失销售机会所造成的利益损失及市场未成规模时开发绿色建筑所造成的净损失是影响房地产企业开发绿色建筑行为的4个关键因素。最后,结合模拟分析结果,总结得出了不同类别房地产开发商群体结合社会环境及自身实际对是否开发绿色建筑的博弈演化路径,进而提出了引导房地产开发商从事绿色建筑开发的若干建议。Promoting and developing green buildings has become a social consensus,however,green buildings＇ popularization in China still has a long way to go. The government had given some incentive policies, under this premise, whether the developers are willing to develop green buildings or not will directly affect the promotion and implementation of green buildings in China. In this paper, using the evolutionary game theory, the wills to develop green buildings of different real estate developer groups were firstly analyzed. Secondly, the imitators＇ dynamic model for developing green buildings was established and the simulation work was carried out. The results demonstrated that the excess returns generated by developing green buildings, discount factor of developers, the loss of benefits by the missed sale opportunities for not developing green buildings and the net loss caused by developing green buildings under immature market condition were the four key factors affecting the real estate developers to develop green buildings. Finally, combined with the simulation results,the evolutionary path of whether or not to develop green buildings for different types of real estate developer groups considering the social environment and their own actual situations were summarized, furthermore, some suggestions to guide the real estate developers to engage in the development of green buildings were proposed.

关 键 词：绿色建筑 开发商 演化博弈 演化稳定策略 模拟分析 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]