贵州省2015～2020年用电量预测及其比较  

Power Consumption Forecasting and Comparative Research on Guizhou Province During 2015-2020

作　　者：曾鸣[1] 李定林[1] 孙晓菲[1] 薛松[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第4期229-232,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271082);国家软科学研究计划基金资助项目(2012GXS4B064)

摘　　要：为给贵州省电力规划提供依据,以便制定科学、合理的发输电规划方案,基于贵州省1985～2009年用电量特点,选取趋势外推法、线性回归法和灰色模型法三种电力负荷预测方法预测了贵州省2015～2020年的用电量,并进行对比分析。结果表明,不同的电力负荷预测方法预测精度不同,灰色系统理论具有很强的通用性。In order to provide the reference for Guizhou province electric power planning to formulate scientific and proper generation and transmission scheme. Based on the power consumption characteristics of Guizhou province during 1985-2009, this paper forecasts the power consumption of Guizhou province during 2015-2020 by using trend extrapolation method, linear regression method and gray model method, and makes comparative analysis. The results show that different power load forecasting method has different prediction accuracy and gray model method has strong compatibility.

关 键 词：用电量预测 趋势外推 线性回归 灰色模型 比较分析 贵州省 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F237.1[经济管理—会计学]