基于AB@G集成模型的九寨沟景区游客量预测研究  

Research on Prediction of Tourists' Quantity in Jiuzhai Valley Based on AB@G Integration Model

作　　者：廖治学[1] 戈鹏[1] 任佩瑜[1] 骆毓燕[1] 章小平[2] 冯刚 

机构地区：[1]四川大学工商管理学院,四川成都610064 [2]九寨沟风景名胜区管理局,四川九寨沟623402 [3]四川旅游发展集团,四川成都610000

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2013年第4期88-93,共6页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)重大项目(2008AA04A107);国家自然科学基金重大国际合作研究项目(71020107027)资助~~

摘　　要：生态景区旅游业的发展与生态环境保护之间的矛盾已成为景区管理最为关注的焦点,而景区游客量的预测是解决该矛盾的首要任务。文章遵循集成思想,以季节性ARMA模型、神经网络模型及组合模型为基础,采用GMDH非线性叠加的集成方法,构建了适用于线性与非线性交错复杂特点数据的AB@G集成预测模型,并以九寨沟景区为研究对象进行实证分析,证明了该模型在预测游客量上是有效的。Balancing the development of eco-tourism and environmental and ecological protection in scenic areas is an increasingly important issue for tourism management and the tourism sector in general. Tourism forecasting is a primary mechanism to help address this potential conflict. Research confirms tourism forecasting, which is a key tool of tourism management, can assist effective environmental protection. This is particularly useful when uncertainty over tourist numbers challenges the management of scenic areas contributing to environmental pollution. Accurate predictions assist scenic area managers in making informed planning decisions and efficiently allocating a variety of resources. This promotes the sustainable development of scenic areas while ensuring economic benefits. In the future, accurate tourism forecasting will become increasingly important for the effective management and the sustainable development of scenic areas. This study examines ways to improve the accuracy of tourism forecasting. This enhancement will provide better foundation information for management decisions and allow the tourism sector to develop in tandem with other relevant industries. Tourism forecasting using a simple single method or a combined linearsuperposition method yields poor results. The complex nature of changing tourist numbers means prediction models that are linear and nonlinear, and which are mutually integrated, are somewhat deficient. The most efficient way to improve forecasting accuracy is to introduce artificial intelligence （AI） techniques to an integrative method. This solves linear and nonlinear issues which are interlaced within tourism predictions. This paper proposes an integrative forecasting model which can be used to accurately produce forecasts of tourist numbers visiting Jiuzhai Valley. According to system integration thinking the AB@ G model provides the best accuracy of all models when used to predict tourism figures. Tourists＇ quantity alters and these shifts have complex linear and nonlinear c

关 键 词：AB@G集成模型 GMDH 九寨沟景区 游客量 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] F224[经济管理—产业经济]