开发长江上游空中云水资源增加南水北调中线的水量  

Development of Cloud Water Resources over the Upstream of Yangtze River to Increase Water Amount of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

作　　者：陈乾[1] 田清鉴 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省人工影响天气办公室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]浙江省气象局,浙江杭州310002

出　　处：《干旱气象》2013年第1期163-173,共11页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY20090624)资助

摘　　要：由于气候变化,加之过度开发,使三江源和汉江上游湿地锐减,生态恶化。致使丹江口水库径流在1991年发生突变,汉江水量由丰变枯,南水北调中线一期工程丹江口水源无法满足受水区的最低需水量。为解决南水北调中线的水源不足,必须大力开发长江上游丰富的空中云水资源。长江流域水汽充足,年输入水汽总量约67 800亿m3,仅有28.5%转化成降水量。在汉江上游进行人工增雨作业,则丹江口水库年径流最大可增加17.5亿m3。实际可调水量将达90.2亿m3,仍无法满足受水区2030年城市缺水量128亿m3的需要。为此需要在长江上游特别是在四川盆地进行人工增雨试验,以增加三峡水库来水量。长江上游可开发的空中云水资源较多,年均总量约5 590.7亿m3,占流域降水年总量的63%。根据云水资源人工增雨开发潜力评估,四川盆地为人工增雨的最佳作业区之一,汉江上游也是理想作业区。如在这2个地区,开展人工增雨作业,增雨机率(Pe)取30%,增雨效率(EW)按流域年降水量10%的保守估算,年总降水量将分别增加162.1亿m3和23.7亿m3,三峡库区和丹江口水库年入库径流量将分别增加83亿m3和11.6亿m3。加上三峡库区的蓄水,能满足受水区2030年缺水量的需要。Due to climate change and over developing,wetland sharply decreased and ecological deteriorated over the headstream of Yellow River,Yangtze River,Lancangjiang River and upstream of the Hanjiang River,which resulted in an abrupt change from more to less runoff in 1991 for Danjiangkou Reservoir,so the water resources of Danjiangkou can not meet the need of the first-stage of the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project.So developing the rich cloud water resources over upper reaches of Yangtze river is important to solve the water shortage of middle-route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.The water vapor is abundant over the Yangtze River basin,the annual input of water vapor approximates 67 800×108 m3,in which only 28.5% turns into precipitation.If we carry out artificial rain enhancement operation in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River,the Danjiangkou reservoir runoff could increase 17.5×108 m3,so the actual water adjustable will amount to 90.2×108 m3,but it is still less than 128×108 m3 water we needed in 2030.If the percent efficiency（Pe） of precipitation is 30%,enhancing efficiency（EW） is 10% by conservative estimates,the annual total rainfall would increase 162.1×108 m3 and 23.7×108 m3 in the two regions,respectively,and Three Gorges reservoir and Danjiangkou reservoir inflow runoff would increase 83×108 m3 and 11.6×108 m3,respectively,which is together with the original water would meet the water need of 2030.

关 键 词：开发 长江上游云水资源 丹江口水库 南水北调中线水源 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]