龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估  

Numerical Simulation and Probabilistic Hazard Assessment of Tephra Fallout at Jinlongdingzi Volcano, Longgang Volcanic Field in Jilin Province

作　　者：于红梅[1,2] 许建东[2] 吴建平[1] 栾鹏[3] 赵波[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081 [2]中国地震局地质研究所活动构造与火山重点实验室,北京100029 [3]国土资源部经济研究院,北京101149

出　　处：《震灾防御技术》2013年第1期62-71,共10页Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40972209);地震行业科研专项(201208005)资助

摘　　要：空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法。本文根据改进的Suzuki(1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序。通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性。根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图。本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据。Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by explosive volcanic eruption. Numerical simulation has become a fast and effective approach to assess the dispersion and deposition of tephra fallout. According to a modified 2D diffusion model of Suzuki （1983）, we develop a tephra diffusion program that can run in Windows system. Based on previous data, we simulated the diffusion scope of Jinlongdingzi volcanic eruption, which is the latest eruption in Longgang volcanic field. The simulated results are in good agreement with the results from measurement in situ, indicating that the model is reliable and the parameters used in the model are suitable. By using wind profiles of ten years, 7021 simulations under different wind profile were carried out, and then probabilistic hazard maps of tephra fallout were constructed for tephra thickness thresholds of 1 cm and 0.5 cm. This study can provide an important scientific basis to the volcanic hazard analysis and risk mitigation plans countermeasure in Longgang volcanic area.

关 键 词：空降碎屑物 数值模拟 灾害概率图 金龙顶子火山 龙岗火山群 

分 类 号：P317[天文地球—固体地球物理学]