基于时间序列趋势图的我国粮食产量主要影响因素分析  

Analysis on grain yield main impact factors based on the time-series trend graph in China

作　　者：王双进[1] 李健英[2] 

机构地区：[1]财政部财政科学研究所,北京100142 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300162

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2013年第4期179-182,共4页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金(12YJC790094);国家自然科学基金(61204013);教育部人文社科规划基金(10YJAZH088)

摘　　要：依据改革开放以来我国粮食生产的历年样本数据,选取影响粮食总产量的播种面积、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、受灾面积、机械总动力、粮食生产成本指数、粮食生产价格指数、财政支农资金等8个主要因素,并将这些因素划分为物质投入、资源环境和政策因素3类,运用因子分析方法,对这些典型影响因子通过时间序列趋势图逐一进行多角度分析。结果发现,化肥施用量、粮食播种面积和旱灾面积成为影响粮食产量的关键因素。在此基础上,针对如何提高粮食综合生产能力提出相应的对策措施。On the basis of China＇s grain production sample data since the reform and opening up, eight main factors which affected total grain yield were selected, such as sown area, the amount of chemical fertilizer, effective irrigation area, affected area, total power of the machinery, index of the cost of grain production, grain production price index, financial funds supporting agriculture. Then these factors were divided into three classes： material inputs, resources and environment and policy factors. It emphasized multi-angle analysis one by one on the typical impact factors by applying the time-series trend graph. On this basis, it proposed corresponding countermeasures and suggestions that how to improve the overall grain production capacity.

关 键 词：粮食产量 影响因素 时间序列趋势图 改革开放以来 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]