近44年全球海域海表风速整体变化趋势研究  

The study of the global ocean sea surface wind speed overall change trend of the recent 44 years

作　　者：贾本凯 郑崇伟[2] 郭随平[3] 庄卉[3] 尹兵[4] 张德天[5] 

机构地区：[1]91967部队气象台 [2]92538部队气象台 [3]解放军理工大学气象海洋学院 [4]海军北海舰队海洋水文气象中心 [5]91388部队95分队

出　　处：《延边大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第1期74-78,共5页Journal of Yanbian University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：中科院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q11-03)

摘　　要：基于来自ECMWF的ERA-40海表10m风场,采用一元线性回归、功率谱分析、突变检验等方法,对近44年全球海域海表风速的变化趋势进行了分析.研究发现:①近44年期间,全球海域海表风速整体上以0.006 7m.s-1.a-1的速度逐年递增;在1958—1975年间,海表风速变化较为平缓;1975—1983年间,海表风速的递增趋势较为强劲.②全球海域海表风速在各季节均表现出显著的线性递增趋势,其中DJF(12—2月)的递增趋势最为强劲,达到0.010 3m.s-1.a-1,JJA(6—8月)的递增趋势最为平缓,约为0.003 3m.s-1.a-1.③海表风速大致成"凸"形月变化特征,北半球的海表风速大致成"U"形月变化特征,南半球海表风速的月变化特征和北半球几乎相反.④全球海域海表风速存在明显的2.4～4.8年的变化周期和8年以上的长周期震荡,但不存在明显的突变形式.Based on the ECMWF （European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts） ERA-40 sea surface 10 meters wind field data, and by using the unary linear regression method, power spectrum analysis method, mutation test analysis method and so on, we analyzed the 1957-2002 years overall variation trend of the sea surface wind speed in the global ocean. The analysis results show that： @ the overall trend： sea surface wind speed variation trend is more gently in the period of 1958-1975, and relatively strong in the period of 1975 1983, and wholly increasing year by year with the 0. 006 7 m s-1 a 1 speed in the period of 1957 2002; the seasonal variation characteristics： the sea surface wind speed variation shows significant linear increasing trend in each season, has the most strong increasing trend in the DJF （December, January, February） with the degree about 0. 010 3 m ~ s 1 . a-1 and the most gentle increasing trend in the JJA （June, July, August） with the degree about 0. 003 3 m ~ s-1 ~ a 1 the monthly variation characteristics： the sea surface wind speed monthly variation characteristics roughly presents ＂凸＂ shape in the global ocean waters, ＂U＂ shape in the northern hemisphere, and shape in the southern hemisphere being almost opposite of the shape in thenorthern hemisphere; @ the variation periods= the sea surface wind speed has the obvious 2.4-4.8 years varia- tion periods and 8 years long period shocks, but without significant mutations situation.

关 键 词：ERA-40风场 全球海域 变化趋势 月变化特征 周期 

分 类 号：P732.1[天文地球—海洋科学]