北京新医改方案下病人就诊支出预测的仿真方法  

Simulation Method of Patients’ Treatment Expenditure Forecast under New Medical Reform Program in Beijing

作　　者：任海英[1] 王红旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2013年第4期53-55,共3页Chinese Health Economics

基　　金：北京市哲学社会科学"十一五"规划项目(10AbJG377)

摘　　要：目的:通过研究北京市医药分开试点方案对医生、病人和医院的影响,对病人就诊支出进行预测。方法:采用复杂适应系统仿真方法,构建病人单次和长期就诊支出的仿真模型。结果:病人就诊支出受自身经济能力、医生行为、自身行为和医院就诊人次四方面因素的影响。结论:新医改方案下,仿真为病人就诊支出的预测提供了一种便捷工具。Objective： To study the impact of Beijing service-drug separation pilot program on doctors, patients and hospitals to forecast patients＇ treatment expenditure. Methods： Using complex adaptive system simulation method to build a simulation model of treatment expenditure of patients with single and long-tenn. Results： Patients＇treatment expenditure is affected by their own economic capacity, physician behavior, their own behavior and hospitals＇ treatment amount. Conclusion： Under new medical reform program, simu[ation method provides a convenient tool to forecast patients＇ treatment expenditure.

关 键 词：医药分开 病人就诊支出 卫生经济仿真 复杂适应系统 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]