台湾人口老龄化与产业结构演变的动态关系研究  

Dynamic Relationship between Aging and Evolution of Industrial Structure in Taiwan

作　　者：陈颐[1] 叶文振[2] 

机构地区：[1]闽江学院管理学系,福建福州350108 [2]福建江夏学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《人口学刊》2013年第3期63-72,共10页Population Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目:我国人口迁移与区域比较优势动态转变研究(12YJC840003);福建省教育厅人文社科研究项目:人口安全与福建现代产业体系构建(JA12255S);"福建省高校杰出青年科研人才培育计划"(JA11202S)

摘　　要：随着台湾地区老龄化社会的来临,老龄化引发的相关问题日益受到社会各界重视。利用1981—2011年台湾地区的相关数据和向量误差修正模型,估算台湾地区人口老龄化与产业结构发展的长期关系,研究发现台湾地区人口老龄化与产业结构二者之间的动态影响是相互的;相较产业结构自身的冲击而言,人口老龄化对产业结构高级化的冲击效应更显著;人口老龄化对产业结构升级及服务业发展的影响具有滞后效应,短期内老龄化无法显现其正面影响作用,但长期来看人口老龄化的趋势对产业结构高级化的正面效应逐渐递增。With the coming of the aging society in Taiwan, related issues are attracted more and more attention. Drawing on the time series data of Taiwan between 1981 to 2011 and using Vector Error Correction model,this paper analyzes the long-term relationship between aging and industrial structure. Results show that there is a mutual dynamic effect between them. Compared with the impact of the industrial structure itself,there is more significant effect of aging on the optimization of industrial structure. And aging of population has the lag effect to the optimization of industrial structure. In the short term, aging can not show its positive the population aging in the long run to the effect. However, there is gradually increasing positive effects of optimization of industrial structure

关 键 词：台湾地区人口老龄化 产业结构 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]