缓解老龄化:适度放宽生育政策有效吗?  

Revise Family Planning Policy:Is it a Valid Path for Reducing the Aging Level in the Future?

作　　者：史佳颖[1] 胡耀岭[2] 原新[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [2]河北大学经济学院,保定071000

出　　处：《人口学刊》2013年第3期73-80,共8页Population Journal

摘　　要：在中国人口老龄化形势进一步加剧的背景下,通过调整生育政策来提高生育率水平以减缓人口老龄化进程、降低人口老龄化水平成为公众的愿望。调整生育政策最大的可能是全面放开二胎。以2010年第六次人口普查数据为基础,分别设定总和生育率保持目前水平1.64、从2015年、2030年和2050年起调整至更替水平四条路径,对中国未来人口老龄化趋势进行模拟。结果表明,适度放宽生育政策可以显著降低本世纪中国人口老龄化水平、减轻老年抚养负担;而且越早调整生育政策对降低人口老龄化水平及老年抚养负担的作用越显著,应在生育率失去弹性之前对生育政策进行调整。Along with the acceleration of aging process, there are growing calls from the public Ior revising the family planning policy so as to raise fertility and reduce the aging level. The thesis devised four different total fertility paths which allow parents to have the second child from 2015,2030 and 2050 separately and compared its impact on the fertility rates and aging level in the future. The result shows that the reasonably adjustment of the family planning policy would reduce China＇s aging level and old dependency ratio properly in the 21st century. The sooner the family planning policy was revised, the better the effects are. The adjustment should be done when the fertility is still flexible.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 生育政策 老年人口抚养比 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]