一个改进的金融CGE模型及在分析存款准备金率中的应用  

Impact of Change in the Deposit Reserve Ratio on Chinese Macro-economy

作　　者：王丽[1] 李贤 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所 [2]华泰证券风险管理部

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2013年第5期152-160,共9页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目"经济预测与经济政策评价"研究成果

摘　　要：通过加入商业银行和中央银行两个部门以及对储蓄一投资转化机制较为细致的设定,本文构建了金融社会核算矩阵和一个扩展的金融CGE模型。模拟存款准备金率变动对我国宏观经济和部门经济的影响,结果显示,存款准备金率调整在一定程度上能够调控宏观经济,并且下调准备金率比上调准备金率的政策效果更为明显。在居民的固定投资方向仅为建筑业的假设下,建筑业对存款准备金率的反应最为敏感,农业部门的政策反应相对较小。By adding commercial bank and central bank, as well as detailed description of transmission mechanism of savings-investment in a conventional CGE model, we establish a Financial Social Accounting Matrix and an extended financial CGE model. We then use the model to simulate the impact of changes in the deposit reserve ratio on Chinese macro-economy and sectoral economy. The simulation resuits show that change in deposit reserve ratio is an effective tool to control and adjust Chinese macro-economy in some degree. Impact of decreasing the deposit reserve ratio has stronger effect on the economy than that of increasing the ratio. Assuming household agent invest only in construction sector, our simulation results show that the construction sector is the most sensitive sector to the change in deposit reserve ratio, while the response of the agricultural sector is the weakest.

关 键 词：存款准备金率 金融一般均衡模型 政策模拟 货币政策 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]