考虑分布式电源随机特性的配电网电压质量概率评估  

Probabilistic Evaluation of Voltage Quality in Distribution Networks Considering the Stochastic Characteristic of Distributed Generators

作　　者：张喆 李庚银 魏军强 

机构地区：[1]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2013年第13期150-156,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2009CB219706);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(11ML35);北京市与中央在京高校共建项目~~

摘　　要：为准确评估分布式电源输出及负荷功率的随机特性对配电网电压质量的影响,在已有的2点估计法(2 points estimate method,2-PEM)的基础上,提出一种改进的2点估计法,用以求解含分布式电源配电系统概率潮流(probabilistic load flow,PLF),从而得到电压的概率统计值。然后结合半不变量理论与Cornish-Fisher级数展开得到其相应的概率密度曲线以及含分布式电源节点的电压越限概率,对含有分布式电源的配电网电压质量进行概率评估。最后,采用改进的IEEE 34节点辐射型配电系统作为算例,通过计算并与通过Monte-Carlo仿真获取的离散的概率值相比较,验证了提出的关于含分布式电源的配电网电压概率评估的正确性。To evaluate the impact on the power quality of distribution system by the stochastic power output of distributed generators and loads, this paper proposed a modified 2-point estimate （2-PEM） method based on the present 2-point estimate method, the probabilistic statistic values of voltages would be derived via the solution of probabilistic load flow （PLF）. Combing with theory of semi-invariant and Cornish-Fisher series expansion, the probabilistic evaluation for voltage quality of the distribution network with distributed generators was obtained with the relative probability distribution fianction （PDF） curves and the probability of voltage out of limit. In the end, taking the modified IEEE 34 bus feeder test system as the case, the property of the proposed method about the probabilistic evaluation for voltage of the distribution network with distributed generators was verified, by comparing the computational results with the discrete value of probability obtained via the Monte-Carlo simulation.

关 键 词：分布式电源 电压质量 概率潮流 概率评估 概率密度函数 2点估计法 半不变量 Cornish-Fisher级数 

分 类 号：TM74[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]