消费率稳态、演进及中国经济持续均衡增长的现实选择--基于R-C-K模型的分析框架  

The Steady-state of Consumption Rate,Evolution and Reality Choice of China's Sustained and Balanced Economic Growth——Based on the Analytical Framework of R-C-K Model

作　　者：纪明[1,2] 刘志彪[3] 岑树田[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院 [2]广西师范学院经济管理学院 [3]江苏省社会科学院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2013年第4期14-25,共12页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“开放条件下中国经济增长的需求约束及突破机制研究”(11YJA790058);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“我国私人消费不足困境的形成机理及突破路径:基于政府支出的视角”(12YJC790187)

摘　　要：本文在R-C-K模型的分析框架下构建稳态消费率决定模型,进而分析中国经济发展过程中的消费率演进及与经济增长关系。主要研究结论有:(1)均衡增长路径上的稳态消费率是最优消费率,由个人主观时间贴现率、相对风险厌恶系数、资本产出弹性、技术进步率、折旧率和劳动增长率等因素所决定;(2)随着工业化进程推进,稳态消费率呈现出先变小再变大的U型曲线演进趋势,实际经济生活中的消费率围绕稳态消费率上下波动;(3)1978年以来,中国经济增长绩效较好,消费率演进并无异常,符合经济发展工业化初中期阶段消费率演进的一般规律,但2001年后,消费率快速下降并大幅偏离稳态消费率,一定程度上降低了经济增长的内生性,进而影响到中国经济的持续均衡增长。根据经济发展的一般规律,提倡再度和适度工业化,通过优化产业结构鼓励发展现代服务业和完善社会保障制度、缩小收入差距等手段扩大消费需求对经济增长的贡献程度刻不容缓。The paper builds a steady - state consumption rate model on the R - C - K analysis framework, and then analyzes the evolution of the process of consumption rate and its relationship with economic growth in China. The main conclusions are ： （ 1 ） the steady - state consumption rate on the balanced growth path is optimal consumption rate discounted, and decided by the subjective time rate coefficient of relative risk aversion,capital - output elasticity, the rate of technological progress,the depreciation rate and labor growth;（2） advancing with the process of industrialization,the steady -state con- sumption rate shows a smaller larger U -type curve evolution trend,the real consumption rate fluctuates around a steady - state consumption rate;（3 ） since 1978, China＇s economic growth showed better performance, and the evolution of the consumption rate showed no abnormality. But after 2001, the consumption rate decreased rapidly and significantly deviated the steady - state consumption rate, which reduced the endogeneity of economic growth , thereby affecting the sustained and stable growth of the Chinese economy. It is urgent to advocate reindustrialization and moderately industrialization according to the general laws of economic development, encourage the development of modem service industry and improve the social security system,and narrow the income gap means to expand consumer demand urgent contribution to economic growth.

关 键 词：消费率 稳态消费率 经济增长 R-C-K模型 工业化进程 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]