全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅷ——气候变化对中国冬小麦冬春性品种种植界限的影响  

The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China Ⅷ—The Effects of Climate Change on Planting Boundaries of Different Winte-Spring Varieties of Winter Wheat in China

作　　者：李克南[1] 杨晓光[1] 慕臣英[1] 徐华军[1,2] 陈阜[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]宁夏大学农学院,银川750021 [3]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2013年第8期1583-1594,共12页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：全球气候变化研究国家重大科学研究计划("973"计划)(2010CB951502);国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项项目(200903003)

摘　　要：【目的】全球气候变化背景下,中国20世纪80年代以后冬季温度升高明显,这一变化对冬小麦冬春性品种种植界限产生怎样的影响,为了回答这一科学问题,笔者以1981年为时间节点,将1951—2010年划分为两个时段,分析比较后一时段冬季温度升高对中国冬小麦的强冬性、冬性、弱冬性和春性4种类型品种种植北界和种植南界的空间位移及可种植面积的影响。【方法】依据制约冬小麦正常越冬的冻害指标和影响春化天数指标确定冬小麦不同品种种植的北界和南界;采用ArcGIS软件绘制冬小麦不同品种种植区域及种植面积变化。【结果】与1951—1980年相比,1981—2010年冬小麦强冬性品种种植北界在宁夏-甘肃及河北-辽宁北移趋势最明显,分别北移200 km和100 km,其种植南界东部地区北移趋势大于西部地区,在江苏和安徽等地移动90 km,强冬性品种可种植面积共增加36.24万km2;冬小麦冬性品种种植北界在山东-河北变化明显,向北移动310 km,种植南界在贵州毕节-习水地区向西推移趋势明显,西推95 km,冬小麦冬性品种可种植区域共增加17.75万km2;冬小麦弱冬性品种种植北界在安徽、江苏、河南和山东交互之处变化明显,北移120—370 km,西部地区变化趋势不明显,种植南界呈略微北推趋势,冬小麦弱冬性品种可种植面积共增加15.70万km2;冬小麦春性品种种植北界在江苏、安徽和河南变化明显,北移230 km,而西部地区不明显,春性品种可种植面积共增加23.44万km2。华北北部地区以强冬性品种为主,华南地区以春性品种为主,河南、山东和四川等地区冬小麦可种植冬春性品种类型较多,以冬性和弱冬性品种为主。【结论】由于中国冬季温度明显升高,较1951—1980年,1981—2010年冬小麦不同冬春性品种种植界限明显北移,北界北移趋势大于南界移动趋势,种植区域面积增大,其中强冬性品种种植界限及可�[ Objective ] Under the background of global climate change, the temperature in winter increased significantly from 1980s in China, how would this change affect the planting boundary of different winterness varieties of winter wheat in China？ In order to answer this scientific question, the authors took the year 1981 as a time node and divided the interval 1951-2010 into two periods, then comparatively analyzed the change characteristics of north planting boundaries, south planting boundary and possible planting areas for strong winterness, wintemess, weak winterness, and springness type winter wheat varieties in China due toincreased temperature in winter during the latter period. [ Method ] The northern and southern bounaanes ot OllIerent wmter wneat types were defined according to the freezing damage index which restricted normal overwintering of winter wheat and the index which affects vernalization days of winter wheat. The changes of planting areas as well as coverage square meters of different winter wheat types were drawn with ArcGIS software. [Result] Compared with the period 1951-1980, in the period 1981-2010, the northern planting boundary of strong winterness winter wheat showed the most significant northward moving trend along Ningxia to Gansu and Hebei to Liaoning, with a spatial shift of 200 km and 100 kin, respectively, and the southern planting boundary of strong winterness winter wheat showed a relatively more significant northward moving trend in the eastern region than the western region, with a spatial shift of 90 km along Jiangsu and Anhui zone, in addition, the possible planting area of strong winterness winter wheat in China increased by 36.24~ 104 krnz in total. The northern planting boundary of winterness winter wheat moved significantly along Shandong and Hebei, with a northward shift of 310 km, and the southern planting boundary of winterness winter wheat showed a significant westward moving trend along Bijie and Xishui stations in Guizhou, with a spatial shift of 95 km, also, the po

关 键 词：气候变暖 冬小麦 冬春性 种植界限 冻害风险 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学]