基于博弈网的武器装备论证多方案分析与评估方法  

Analysis ＆ Evaluation Method of Weapon Demonstration Alternatives Based on Games Network

作　　者：罗小明 姚宏林 刘一 

机构地区：[1]装备学院航天指挥系,北京101416 [2]装备学院研究生管理大队,北京101416

出　　处：《装备学院学报》2013年第2期116-120,共5页Journal of Equipment Academy

基　　金：部委级资助项目

摘　　要：博弈网模型是对超博弈问题进行描述的图模型。基于博弈网的多方案分析方法引入了不确定性和有限理性的处理机制,将武器装备论证多方案生成和评估过程抽象为某个局中人作为决策者的单方博弈网的建立、修正和求解过程。分析了武器装备论证超博弈问题的基本特征,提出了利用博弈网进行超博弈问题建模的基本流程,建立了基于博弈网的武器装备论证多方案分析与评估模型,给出了其综合均衡策略求解、优化可行策略集确定以及优化策略风险评估方法。Games network model is a graph model which is used to describe super games prob- lem. Indeterminacy and limited rationality disposal mechanism is introduced in analysis of alternatives method based on games network, the analysis and evaluation process of weapon demonstration alter- natives are described for someone of the players, who as decision maker, construct, correct and re- solve one-way of game network. In this paper, essential character of super games problem is ana- lyzed, essential process of super games problem model is put forward utilizing games network, and al- ternatives analysis and evaluation model of weapon demonstration based on network of games is con- stituted. Integrated equilibrium strategy, optimization feasible tactics sets determination and optimi- zation tactics risk assessment method are proposed.

关 键 词：武器装备论证 多方案分析 超博弈 博弈网 

分 类 号：E911[军事]