基于人体舒适度指数的配电网短期负荷预测方法  

A distribution short-term load forecasting based on human comfort index

作　　者：张伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]积成电子股份有限公司,山东济南250100

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2013年第9期74-79,共6页Power System Protection and Control

摘　　要：针对配电网负荷特点,提出了一种基于负荷曲线形状相似度与人体舒适度指数的配电网短期负荷预测方法。研究了负荷曲线形状相似的特点,依靠各时刻负荷差值期望,给出了一种负荷曲线形状相似度计算方法。针对气象因素对负荷的影响,引入了人体舒适度指数,并根据日最高气温与最低气温,给出了一种日人体舒适度指数相似度计算方法。根据配电网负荷类型特点,分析了节假日与正常工作日情况下,各类型负荷变化特性。结合上述特性,给出了一种配电网短期负荷预测方法,并详细论述了方法原理及步骤。结合某一配电网电源点9天历史数据与气象数据作为实例,表明了所提出方法的可行性。A short-term load forecasting method is made based on the load curve shape similarity and human comfort index for distribution load characteristics. The characteristics of the load curve shape similarity are researched. Based on the expectation of each moment load difference, a load curve shape similarity calculation method is given. Based on the impact of meteorological factors on the load, a human comfort index is introduced, and according to the daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature, the similarity calculation method of a day human comfort index is given. According to the distribution load type characteristics, the load change characteristics of various types are researched on holidays and normal working days. Combining these features, this paper gives a distribution network short term load forecasting method, and discusses the method and its steps in detail. Nine days of historical data and weather data of a distribution network power point are taken as examples to verify the feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：配电网 短期负荷预测 形状相似度 人体舒适度指数 气象因素 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]