基于SPSS软件的黑河正义峡下泄水量预报分析  

Forecasting and Analysis of the Discharged Water Capacity of Zhengyi Gorge Section in Heihe River Based on SPSS Model

作　　者：胡广录[1] 张济世[1] 樊立娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学环境与市政工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《人民黄河》2013年第4期22-24,28,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41161082);甘肃省自然科学基金资助项目(1107RJZA167)

摘　　要：基于1951—2000年黑河莺落峡、正义峡断面径流量观测数据和中游地区气象观测资料,采用SPSS多元线性逐步回归分析模型分析了影响正义峡断面下泄水量的莺落峡断面年径流量、黑河中游年平均气温等因素,并对2001—2011年正义峡断面自然状态下的下泄水量进行了模拟预报。结果表明:黑河调水及中游工农业生产的快速发展对正义峡断面自然状态下下泄水量的影响显著,2001—2011年预报的多年平均值较1951—2000年预报的多年平均值偏小0.792亿m3,从而影响了黑河分水方案的正常实施,建议对现行的黑河分水方案进行修订和完善。Based on the observed annual runoff series data in Yingluo Gorge and Zhengyi Gorge section of Heihe River, and the annual meteorologi- cal observation data in the middle area of kieihe River basin from 195l to 2000, the influence factors such as the annual runoff of Yingluo Gorge section and the annual average temperature of the middle Heihe River were analyzed with the SPSS multiple linear stepwise regression analysis mod- el, and the model equation was used to simulate and forecast the discharged water capacity of Zhengyi Gorge section from 2001 to 2011 under the natural conditions. The results show that the unified water allocation of the main stream of Heihe River and the rapid development of industry and agriculture in the middle area of Heihe River have significant impact on the discharged water capacity of Zheng＇yi Gorge section. Using the model e- quation, we forecasted that the average value for the years from 2001 to 2011 was less 0. 792 x 108 m3 than the average value for the years from 1951 to 2000, the results affected the normal implementation of water diversion plan of Heihe River. Therefore, the proposals to revise and improve the existing water diversion scheme of Heihe River are put forward in the paper.

关 键 词：SPSS软件 线性逐步回归 水量预报 下泄水量 正义峡断面 黑河 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]