我国房地产市场的金融加速器效应检验  

The Test of Financial Accelerator Effect in China's Real Estate Market

作　　者：曹勇[1] 张鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行研究生部,北京100083 [2]中国银行间市场交易商协会,北京100033

出　　处：《上海金融》2013年第4期16-18,116,共3页Shanghai Finance

摘　　要：本文使用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)对我国35个大中城市2003年到2009年期间房屋销售价格、信贷供给、真实利率、真实产出、人口等变量之间的互动关系进行了实证检验。脉冲响应函数显示,信贷供给对于房价变量的冲击具有显著的长期正向响应;而房价变量对于真实利率的冲击具有期限较长的显著负向响应,方差分解也得到了相似的结果。以上实证结果验证了以房地产价格波动机制为传导途径的金融加速器效应在我国城市信贷市场上是非常明显的。The article uses panel vector auto regression model(PVAR) to empirically test the interaction among housing sales price,the supply of credit,real interest rates,real output,population and other variables in China's 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2003 to 2009.The impulse response function shows that the supply of credit has a significant long-term positive response to the impact of housing price;housing price has a significant long-term negative response to the impact of the real interest rate,and variance decomposition also gets similar results.The above empirical results demonstrate that the financial accelerator effect,which is conducted through the real estate price fluctuation mechanism,is very obvious in China's urban credit markets.

关 键 词：金融加速器 房地产市场 信贷供给 效应 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]