西北太平洋热带气旋统计分析及其与大气季节内振荡的关系  

Statistical Analysis on Tropical Cyclone over Northwest Pacific and Its Relationship with Madden-Julian Oscillation

作　　者：陈昌吉[1,2] 付强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋气象系中国海洋大学物理海洋实验室 [2]中国人民解放军92313部队气象台

出　　处：《现代农业科技》2013年第7期250-252,共3页Modern Agricultural Science and Technology

摘　　要：利用热带气旋最佳路径数据集统计分析了1961—2011年发生于西北太平洋热带气旋频数的时间序列特征,发现热带气旋的频数有减少的趋势。通过多年月平均OLR资料的EOF分析发现,OLR与气旋频数成较好的负相关。再选取2004年为个例,通过对OLR作EOF分析和200 hPa速度势的距平合成分析来研究热带大气季节内振荡对热带气旋的调制作用,研究结果表明:西北太平洋45 d的低频振荡非常活跃;气旋源地与振荡中心在空间分布上有很好的相关性。Time series characteristics of tropical cyclone occurred in the north western Pacific during 1961 to 2011 were analyzed using the data of CMA-STI. The results showed a decreasing trend in tropical cyclone. There was a strong negative correlation between OLR and cyclone frequency by EOF analysis with years of monthly mean OLR data. Through the analysis of OLR and 200 hPa velocity potential in 2004,it showed that the lowfrequency oscillation of the 45 days of the northwest Pacific was very active,and the cyclone sources with the center of oscillation in the spatial distribution were in good correlation.

关 键 词：热带气旋 EOF分析 季节内振荡 西北太平洋 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]