曲线法的林业产业演进阶段测度研究——以黑龙江森工林区为例  

Measurement of Forestry Industry Evolution Period based on Compertz Model——With the forest industry zone of Heilongjiang province as an example

作　　者：李微[1] 万志芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林业经济与管理研究中心,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2013年第1期13-17,共5页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(11CJY021);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(DL12BC01);黑龙江省哲学社会科学基金项目(12E147;11E138);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(G201105)

摘　　要：介绍了黑龙江省森工林区林业产业发展的概况,使用1996～2010年40个国有林业企业的产值作为研究样本,运用Compertz生长曲线法,从产业组织和产业规模视角对黑龙江森工林区林业产业演进阶段进行测度,结果表明:黑龙江省林业产业在21世纪初经历了成熟期后,没有进入衰退期,而是进入下一产业生命周期的快速成长期。因此,提出积极培育合理利用森林资源、依靠科学技术转变林业经济增长方式、完善各项林业产业政策、建立健全林业产业发展制度等林区林业产业发展的对策。The repositioning of China＇s forestry is switching the state-owned forestry area from its sup- ply of timber and timber products into creation of ecological benefit. The repositioning of the state- owned forestry area is both an opportunity and challenge to the forestry industry zone of Heilongjiang province. The challenge relies in downscaling timber production which can create enormous profit, while the opportunity relies in growth of multi-resource corporations such as that engaged in timber deep processing and forest chemicals. The forestry industry. By Compertz model, the industry zone of Heilongjiang province process from the maturity to growth. It making forestry policies and goals. change requires study on the evolution and growth of the paper measures the forestry evolution period of the forest , and pointed out that forestry industry has experienced the is useful in finding out the evolution law of forestry industry and

关 键 词：Compertz生长曲线法 林业产业 演进阶段 测度 

分 类 号：F326.25[经济管理—产业经济]