木质林产品进口与中国木材市场消费及木材生产关系的实证研究  

Empirical Study on Relationship between China's Wood Forest Products Imports and Timber Market Consumption and Timber Production

作　　者：李健[1] 何继新[1] 荆涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津城市建设学院经济与管理学院,天津300384 [2]国家林业局,北京100714

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2013年第1期27-31,35,共6页Issues of Forestry Economics

摘　　要：根据协整理论和格兰杰因果检验方法,对中国木质林产品进口和国内木材市场消费量及木材年产量之间的关系进行了实证研究。分析结果表明:中国木质林产品进口与木材消费量及年产量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,同时在滞后期为1的情况下木质林产品进口与木材市场消费量和木材年产量之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。据此,在分析国内木材供需的基础上,提出了大力发展人工林、提高木材利用率、优化进口市场结构等对策建议,以解决对进口木材依赖的问题。According to cointegration theory and granger causality test method, we made to empirical analysis on relationship between China＇s wood forest products imports and timber market consumption and timber production. Studies have shown that our wood forest products import and wood consumption and annual production exist long-term stable equilibrium relationship, and at lag one, it exist unidi- rectional granger causality between wood forest imports and timber market consumption and annual pro- duction. And so, on the basis of analysis of the domestic timber supply and demand, raised recom- mendations to vigorously development of plantations, raised wood utilization, optimize the structure import market to address the dependence on imported timber.

关 键 词：木质林产品进口 木材消费 木材生产 格兰杰因果关系 

分 类 号：F307.24[经济管理—产业经济]