沿海地区耕地占补时空演变研究——以宁波市为例  

Examining Temporal and Spatial Evolution for Arable Land Occupied and Compensated at Coastal Areas——A Case Study for Ningbo

作　　者：张志军[1] 赵志刚[2] 邱俊武[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市测绘院,天津300381 [2]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《城市勘测》2013年第2期30-34,共5页Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

摘　　要：目前,建设占用耕地,后备资源补充模式是被占用耕地得到补偿的一种有效方式,然而这种单一模式是否长期有效是值得深思的一个问题。本文使用Logistic回归模型和二分类因变量的多元化分析方法对此模式在沿海地区的时空演变进行研究。以宁波市为例,模拟了建设用地、耕地和后备资源三者在时空演变中的关系,使用现实数据对模型进行了验证,证明其可行性和有效性。最后预测了2011年～2021年建设占用耕地和后备资源补充耕地的趋势。结果表明建设用地扩展将向南部迁移,占用耕地数量相对减少,后备资源将会枯竭等后果。The mode that using back-up resources to supply farmland that used for construction is an effective way of compensation for occupied farmland at presently. But is it continuable？ This paper studied the temporal and spatial evo- lution at coastal areas with the logistic regression model and the two categories dependent variable analysis method. Take Ningbo as an example, we simulated space-time evolution of the relationship among the construction land, cultivated land and reserve resources. Using real data validated model to prove its feasibility and effectiveness. And lastly, predicted the trend that construction occupying arable land and land reserving resource supplementing arable land in 2011 and 2021 Then, the result showed the construction land would expanse more quickly in the south, the number of occupied arable land would reduce relatively, and the reserving resource would exhaust in 2021.

关 键 词：LOGISTIC回归模型 多元量化分析 时空模拟 耕地占补平衡 

分 类 号：P208.2[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]