城市公交客运量预测的线性测量误差模型  

Linear Measurement Error Model for Predicting the Passenger Volume of Urban Public Transit

作　　者：乔路芳[1] 乔路娜 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学理学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]山西省襄垣一中,山西长治046200

出　　处：《常熟理工学院学报》2013年第2期44-47,共4页Journal of Changshu Institute of Technology

摘　　要：现有城市公交客运量的预测方法并没有考虑到原始数据的测量误差,为了弥补这种缺陷,以某市1998～2007年城市公交年客运量及该市的职工人数、居民零售额和职工收入作为原始数据,建立了城市公交客运量预测的线性测量误差模型,并对该市2008年、2009年、2010年的公交客运量进行了预测.通过与实际值的对比,结果表明,线性测量误差模型的预测精度相对较高,其预测结果可以为城市公交客运量规划提供依据.The general methods of predicting the passenger volume of urban public transit do not consider raw date measurement errors. In this paper,a linear measurement error model is proposed to improve the general methods. And the model is verified on the basis of passenger volume of workers from a city from 1998 to 2010. Besides, the model is used to predict the passenger volume of urban public transit of the city in 2008,2009 and 2010.The results show that, compared with the real value, the presented model has higher precision, and the forecast results can provide a basis for passenger volume of urban public transit.

关 键 词：公交客运量预测 线性模型 测量误差 校正似然 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]