队列效应下天津城区养老意愿影响因素分析  

Cohort Effect and Factors Influencing Urban Seniors' Desire for Aged Support in Tianjin

作　　者：封婷[1] 李彦博 陈茗[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100732 [2]天津市河东区政府研究室,天津300171 [3]厦门大学公共事务学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《南京人口管理干部学院学报》2013年第2期18-23,共6页Journal of Nanjing College for Population Programme Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(12BRK009);教育部重点研究基地基金资助重大项目(11JJD840012)

摘　　要：通过分析天津城区老年人和准老年人养老意愿的调查数据,揭示出队列效应和年龄效应在养老意愿中起的不同作用。由于受重大社会变迁影响,"五零队列"在子女数目、受教育水平、是否下岗等生存状态上与"四零队列"显著不同。这些差异会影响他们未来的养老意愿和养老模式,政府应该针对"五零列队"的实际需要制定有效的养老政策。By analyzing the survey data to see seniors＇ and quasi - seniors＇ desires for aged support in Tianjin ur- ban areas, the paper indicates that cohort effect and age effect have different influences on the desire. Due to the impact of major social changes, the ＂1950s Cohort＂ is remarkably different from the ＂1940s Cohort＂ in such as- pects as the number of children, the level of education, whether being laid off, etc. These differences will affect their future mode of endowment and pension, so the government should base its endowment policies on the practi- cal need of the ＂1950s Cohort＂.

关 键 词：老龄化 老龄社会 城市老年人 养老意愿 队列效应 年龄效应 生命历程 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]