资本项目开放为何必然导致拉美金融危机频发  

How the Full Opening of the Capital Account to Highly Liquid Financial Markets Led Latin America to Two and a Half Cycles of “Mania,Panic and Crash”

作　　者：何塞.加布里埃尔.帕尔玛 李黎力 李双双 

机构地区：[1]剑桥大学经济系

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2013年第2期11-23,79,共13页Journal of Latin American Studies

基　　金：教育部"博士研究生学术新人奖";国家留学基金资助

摘　　要：拉美最近经历了三轮周期的资本流入,且前两轮均以重大金融危机收场。本文旨在从凯恩斯、明斯基、金德尔伯格的金融经济学的视角来剖析由这第二轮周期所导致的金融危机(包括拉美和东亚)。本文试图表明,无论这些新近开放资本项目、实现金融自由化的发展中国家试图采取何等不同的路径来解决随后资本流入激增所带来的吸收问题,它们都无法逃脱金融危机的厄运。因此,这些金融危机的频发主要是源自过度流动性且"友好监管的"金融市场所固有的内在因素,从而是完全理应遭受和基本可以预见的。并且,这些危机并非只是意味着主要市场的失灵,而是表明了系统性的市场失败。它们是友好监管且过度流动性的金融市场之下自由运作的理性经济人自发行为的后果。而历史一再表明,这些经济人从过去的错误中吸取教训的能力却相当有限。Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows.The paper is aimed at analyzing financial crises resulting from the second cycle(both in Latin America and East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian,Minskyian,Kindlebergian financial economics.It tries to prove that those developing countries that newly liberalized their financial systems would invariably end up in a major crisis no matter whatever measures they took to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow.Those financial crises took place mostly due to intrinsic or inherent factors of a market with over-liquidity and "friendly-regulated" financial system.Furthermore,they are related to a systemic market failure.There is evidence to show that they were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximizing agents freely operating in a friendly regulated,over-liquid financial market.These crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion.In other words,markets are not always right.It is indicated that those utility-maximizing agents seem to show rather limited ability in learning from previous mistakes.

关 键 词：拉美 金融危机 金融自由化 新自由主义 市场失灵 

分 类 号：F837.305.9[经济管理—金融学]