Bayesian estimator of human error probability based on human performance data  

作　　者：Zhiqiang Sun Erling Gong Zhengyi Li Yingjie Jiang Hongwei Xie 

机构地区：[1]College of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation,National University of Defense Technology [2]Department of Computer,Changsha Social Work College

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》2013年第2期242-249,共8页系统工程与电子技术（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(20114307120032);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71201167)

摘　　要：A Bayesian method for estimating human error probability（HEP） is presented.The main idea of the method is incorporating human performance data into the HEP estimation process.By integrating human performance data and prior information about human performance together,a more accurate and specific HEP estimation can be achieved.For the time-unrelated task without rigorous time restriction,the HEP estimated by the common-used human reliability analysis（HRA） methods or expert judgments is collected as the source of prior information.And for the time-related task with rigorous time restriction,the human error is expressed as non-response making.Therefore,HEP is the time curve of non-response probability（NRP）.The prior information is collected from system safety and reliability specifications or by expert judgments.The（joint） posterior distribution of HEP or NRP-related parameter（s） is constructed after prior information has been collected.Based on the posterior distribution,the point or interval estimation of HEP/NRP is obtained.Two illustrative examples are introduced to demonstrate the practicality of the aforementioned approach.A Bayesian method for estimating human error probability（HEP） is presented.The main idea of the method is incorporating human performance data into the HEP estimation process.By integrating human performance data and prior information about human performance together,a more accurate and specific HEP estimation can be achieved.For the time-unrelated task without rigorous time restriction,the HEP estimated by the common-used human reliability analysis（HRA） methods or expert judgments is collected as the source of prior information.And for the time-related task with rigorous time restriction,the human error is expressed as non-response making.Therefore,HEP is the time curve of non-response probability（NRP）.The prior information is collected from system safety and reliability specifications or by expert judgments.The（joint） posterior distribution of HEP or NRP-related parameter（s） is constructed after prior information has been collected.Based on the posterior distribution,the point or interval estimation of HEP/NRP is obtained.Two illustrative examples are introduced to demonstrate the practicality of the aforementioned approach.

关 键 词：human error probability（HEP） human performance data human reliability probabilistic safety assessment Bayesian approach 

分 类 号：TP274[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置] O212.8[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]