国际油价冲击对中国贸易条件的传导机制和动态影响  

Transmission Mechanism and Dynamic Effect of International Oil Price Shocks on China’s Terms of Trade

作　　者：陈宇峰[1,2] 邵朝对[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院 [2]现代商贸研究中心,310018 [3]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2013年第5期3-18,共16页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71103159);中国博士后科学基金特别资助(201104202);浙江省哲学社会科学基金之江青年项目(11ZJQN059YB);浙江省软科学研究计划(2012C35055);浙江省哲学社会科学重点研究(浙商研究中心)重大招标项目(12ZS001Z)

摘　　要：在成本传递和"部门转移效应"基础上,本文构建并检验了国际油价冲击对中国贸易条件的传导路径,同时利用VAR模型模拟了油价冲击的动态影响,最后分析了全球金融危机是否改变了油价对贸易条件的冲击效应。结果表明:(1)能源密集型产品与整体贸易条件的运动轨迹基本一致,先恶化后改善,最终收敛于0,但不管恶化还是改善,主要取决于外部因素的影响;(2)由于"部门转移"比较弱,非能源密集型产品的贸易条件改善,贸易福利虽有所提高,但仍会导致失业和资本闲置,从而扼杀社会经济长期健康的发展;(3)全球金融危机强化了能源密集型产品与整体贸易条件的运动轨迹,但削弱了国外的"部门转移效应"。Based on data from June 1998 to January 2012, this paper applies Granger causality to examine the transmission path of international oil price shocks towards China＇s terms of trade, utilizes VAR model to simulate the dy-namic effect of these price shocks, and lastly analyzes whether the financial cri-sis has modified the knock-on effect of oil prices on terms of trade. The results show that： firstly, the movement trail of energy intensive products and that of overall trade terms basically converge, marking an improvement after deterioration before leveled off at zero at last, and both deterioration and improvement shifts are primarily subject to eternal factors; secondly, due to weak ＂sector adjust-ment effects＂ , when the improvement of trade terms of non-energy intensive products contributes to the trade welfare, unemployment and idleness of capital may still occur, jeopardizing the health of social and economic development in the long run; thirdly, the global financial crisis consolidates the movement trail of energy intensive products as well as overall trade terms while whittling down the foreign sector-adjustment effect. As a whole, international oil price shocks add to the disadvantages of China competing in international trade and coordinat- ing its own economic resources effectively.

关 键 词：国际油价 贸易条件 传导路径 动态影响 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]